Youth vs Experience .......

In less than 5 days the inaugural Syracuse IM 70.3 will start. Based upon the wave start I'm expecting to be getting in the water about 25 minutes or so after TP, a young and inexperienced triathlete. This is TP's first go at this distance race. It'll be interesting to see how hard that he goes out on the swim and then on the bike. Fortunately I will know his time when he exits the water as well as at the mid point on the bike course as I will have my scouts keeping track of his pace so i know just how hard to push on the bike.

I'm expecting TP to go hard in the water and on the bike as this is the only place that he will have a prayer in putting any distance between us. My goal is not to beat his time but instead to catch him on the run. This means that I will most likely have to close a 35 minute gap coming out of the swim. I should be able to pick up 2 minutes in transition and 5-8 minutes on the bike, leaving me 25-28 minutes on the run to make up. With an expected 7 min/mile pace I should catch him in the last 2 miles of the run. My bet is that he pushes way too hard on the swim and even harder on the bike in the early stage that will create a glycogen deficit that will cost him dearly on the run. I'm thinking that he'll average a 9:30 mile on the run, with the lactic acid build up in his quads :)

Despite the fact that I am under trained on both the bike and swim I'm still most confident that my deliberate pace and careful attention to my nutrition and heart rate will deliver me to the tape before my young competitor. Last fall, In Canada, my 27 year old buddy that I train with thought that he could take me and I beat him by more than 30 minutes and he had a few races under his belt and was trained up for the course.

Sunday will be a very fun day................... for the old bull.

Cheers!